Thank You for Standing With Ukraine
https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/

Russia’s hybrid warfare against Europe may be entering a far more dangerous phase. In this conversation, Prof and Greg Terry examine sabotage, cyber operations, GPS interference, drones, suspected attacks beyond Ukraine, and the growing risk that Moscow could eventually miscalculate its way into a direct confrontation with NATO.

The discussion focuses on why Vladimir Putin may believe the West still lacks the willingness to respond decisively. Greg draws on more than three decades of experience working in Russia and the region to explain the Kremlin mindset, while the conversation turns to Germany, Poland, the Baltic states, Moldova, Transnistria, Odessa, and the possibility that Russia is deliberately testing the limits of NATO’s tolerance.

They also examine signs surrounding possible Russian mobilization, Moscow’s wartime economy, NATO air-defense shortages, Donald Tusk’s increasingly forceful posture toward Russia, and the danger that one hybrid operation causing significant European casualties could trigger political pressure for a much stronger response.

The central warning is simple: Russia may view Western restraint not as de-escalation, but as permission to keep pushing. Ukraine understands the Kremlin because it has been fighting this war for years. The question is whether Europe and the United States will recognize the danger before a calculated gamble becomes something no one can control.

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CHAPTERS
0:00 Why Hybrid Warfare May Be Europe’s Biggest Crisis
2:03 Why Putin Keeps Testing the West
6:09 Signs of Possible Russian Mobilization
6:21 Moldova, Transnistria and Putin’s Wider Ambitions
9:12 Does Moscow Believe Europe Will Respond?
9:50 Donald Tusk’s Warning and the Risk of Hot War
13:09 Could One Incident Trigger a NATO Crisis?
14:30 How the Kremlin Interprets Western Restraint
14:53 Russia Smells Weakness — And the Danger Grows

#ukraine #russia #hybridwarfare #nato #europe #putin #transnistria #moldova #poland #donaldtusk #europeansecurity

I examine Sergei Lavrov’s claim that European rearmament is provoking Russia, even as Moscow sustains its war against Ukraine and reportedly plans major spending on jet-powered drones and loitering munitions. The strategic issue is not whether NATO should react impulsively to every Russian action; it is whether repeated drone incursions, aggressive flight paths, and hybrid operations can gradually raise the threshold for an allied response. The Institute for the Study of War warns that such normalization could create tactical surprise.

I also cover the reported major security incident near RAF Fairford, Germany’s allegations of Russian hybrid activity, and Putin’s renewed rhetoric about Russian speakers in the Baltic states. Ukraine is testing interceptor drones while Poland has offered to host Patriot missile production. I assess Moscow’s political warfare aimed at Germany and France, including messaging around Nord Stream and the online “Russia is not my enemy” campaign—and why European unity remains a central strategic target.

00:00 Ukraine negotiations and the drone war
01:42 North Korean POWs and South Korea’s concerns
03:38 Lavrov’s warning on European rearmament
05:40 Hybrid pressure and NATO’s response threshold
07:50 RAF Fairford security incident
11:25 Patriot production, Nord Stream, and Russian messaging
13:25 Starlink, the Trump-Xi summit, and leadership
16:02 US midterms and the debate over Russia
18:05 Why the “Russia is not my enemy” campaign matters

#ukraine #russia #nato #europeansecurity #deterrence facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.


Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Profe....ssor-Gerdes/membersh

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine
https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine.
Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:
https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email professorgerdesyt@gmail.com

#ukraine #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainewar

I examine Vladimir Putin’s decree raising Russia’s authorized armed-forces strength to more than 2.44 million personnel, including 1.55 million active service members. The latest increase adds 49,860 total personnel and 47,860 servicemen—not the reported 300,000-man mobilization target, but potentially an incremental route toward it. I assess the possible manpower sources: coerced Russian citizenship and military registration in occupied Ukraine, reported additional North Korean deployments, and a 2027 Russian defense allocation of 17.1 trillion rubles.

I also look at Estonia’s allegation that Russian intelligence organized the August 15 arson attack on Tallinn’s Milrem robotics factory, the unresolved foreign-actor threat near RAF Fairford, and Europe’s lagging rearmament debate. Ukraine’s general-staff personnel review and Belgium’s planned transfer of three F-16s offer signs of adaptation, while proposed sanctions relief in exchange for prisoner releases raises a hard question: does easing pressure create peace—or reward coercion?

00:00 Putin’s 47,860-Serviceman Increase
03:50 2027 Defense Spending and Economic Secrecy
08:10 Ukraine’s Personnel Review and Belgian F-16s
10:39 Europe’s Deterrence and Rearmament Challenge
13:54 RAF Fairford and the Foreign-Actor Threat
16:41 Risks of Easing Russia Sanctions
19:39 Article 5, NATO Commitments, and Ukraine
22:43 How Could Putin Reach 300,000?

#ukrainerussiawar #putin #russianmilitary #nato #europeansecurity #estonia facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Profe....ssor-Gerdes/membersh

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine
https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine.
Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:
https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email professorgerdesyt@gmail.com

#ukraine #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainewar